3-2-1 | Warren Buffett, Zillow’s Forecast & An Off-Market Win


March 20th, 2025

Happy Thursday

Sometimes, the best deals never hit the market.

This past week, we closed on a beautiful modern home in Encinitas for our buyers—completely turnkey, west of the 5, and just a short bike ride to the beach.

The catch? It was never publicly listed.

I first heard about this home at a local realtor networking session, where a Compass agent mentioned it in passing. The details were vague, but I knew it could be a perfect fit for one of my clients. We connected, got in early for a private showing, and made an offer before the public even knew about it.

Now, the challenge with off-market deals is always the same: sellers wonder if they could get more by listing. In this case, the seller had been on the market last year but didn’t get his number. So when we came in strong—with terms that made the process smooth and stress-free—it became a win-win. My buyers got their dream home at a great price, and the sellers walked away happy, avoiding the hassle of open houses and weeks of showings.

The key takeaway? Opportunities like this come from being tapped into the local market. If you're looking for something specific, whether on or off-market, let’s talk. The next hidden gem might be just around the corner.

Even in a competitive market, there are always creative ways to get ahead.

Here’s what’s happening in real estate today:

3 properties to watch, 2 news updates on market trends, and 1 thought-provoking insight from me + a snapshot of current market conditions.

The number of homes on the market is slowly increasing, but real estate is always hyper-local. In some areas, homes are flying off the market, while in others, days on market are ticking up. So when people ask if homes are sitting longer—there’s no one-size-fits-all answer. It depends on the neighborhood.

Mortgage rates are holding steady for now, but anticipation is building that they may drop as the year progresses

Median Prices This Week

Rancho Santa Fe

$7,124,000

View All Stats→

Encinitas

$3,750,000

View All Stats→

Carlsbad

$2,349,000

View All Stats→

3 Properties to check out

3119 Salina Rd

Carlsbad, CA 92010

$1,350,000

Modern 2019 Home in Carlsbad.— One of my new favorite communities. Closing on a property in here TODAY. This is a great community ideal for families seeking comfort and convenience.

1543 Gascony Rd

Encinitas, CA 92024

$3,900,000

Coastal Retreat in Sky Loft – Amazing potential. This is a dream location with views to the West & East. Perfect for coastal living and entertaining in a prime Encinitas location.

6372 Las Colinas

Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067

$10,995,000

Mediterranean Estate in Rancho Santa Fe – This is a WOW property. 8-bed, 9.5-bath estate on 6 acres offers resort-style living with a pool, guest casita, and grand interiors. Ultimate privacy, equestrian trails, and top-rated schools


2 News Articles

Zillow economists now project that U.S. home prices will rise just +0.8% between February 2025 and February 2026. Last month, their 12-month forecast projected a +1.1% increase in U.S. home prices, and the month before that, they expected a +2.9% increase.

Short answer, no. Berkshire HomeServices is "not for sale".... until it is. Everyone has a price! This would be a massive move to put our brokerage Compass, already the most dominant player in the brokerage industry, far ahead of the competition.

Here's what The CEO of BHS said:

“Many of you may be aware of articles published in the Wall Street Journal and elsewhere today stating that HomeServices of America was in talks to be sold to Compass. I want to confirm to you that there are no discussions, negotiations, or agreements to sell HomeServices or any of its affiliated companies, and that includes the Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices franchise business. Moreover, no such sale is being contemplated.

“The genesis of this story is not known at this time; it’s important to note that it was based on rumors from unnamed sources and that HomeServices was not given notice of the article nor the opportunity to respond. I am aware that this misinformation may have been alarming, confusing, and disruptive to you and your network agents. I hope this email provides clarification for you so that you can go out into the real estate community confidently and with the truth regarding these claims.”

Gino Blefari

Chairman & CEO, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices

1 Tip or Thought

I recently had a deal fall through because the buyer’s appraisal came in $100K short. My sellers were pumped with the offer, but we quickly learned that nothing is final until closing.

When this happens, buyers either cover the difference, renegotiate, or walk away—which is exactly what happened.

So, should sellers get an appraisal before listing?

In some cases, yes. If you're pushing for top dollar in an area with few comparable sales, a pre-listing appraisal can provide a reality check. But keep in mind, appraisals vary, and a buyer’s lender may not accept it. It’s just one tool to guide pricing in uncertain markets.

Setting record prices is great for sellers, but without the right safeguards—strong contingencies, upfront buyer qualification, and a lender with a solid appraisal panel—things can fall apart fast. This deal was a tough reminder of why having the right pieces in place matters.

Josh Meltzer

DRE 02098859

REALTOR®

M: 858.585.0309

Josh@Talechia.com

P.S. Have you ever thought about learning self defense or doing Jiu Jitsu!? I train at GB Encinitas. Our school is opening a brand new location in Carlsbad. Do you or any friends want to join? They are running a founders special here...

Was this forwarded to you? Get on the list here!

Have a question or comment?


DISCLAIMER: Due to recent changes by California Association of Realtors, and the SDMLS Clear Cooperation Policy (the “Policy”), Brokers are limited in their ability to share off-market properties. It is the intent of this letter to be in compliance with the Policy. For this reason, Talechia & Associates can only share such property information with clients of Talechia & Associates. If you would like more information on our properties that are not publicized in the MLS, and becoming a client of Compass, please contact Josh (858) 585-0309 or Talechia (858) 229-2181

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California and abides by Equal Housing Opportunity laws. License Number 01991628, 01527235, 01527365. All material presented herein is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but has not been verified. Changes in price, condition, sale or withdrawal may be made without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description. All measurements and square footage are approximate. If your property is currently listed for sale this is not a solicitation.

Compass · 16085 San Dieguito Rd Ste E8 · Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067 · USA
Unsubscribe · Preferences

Josh Meltzer | Compass Real Estate

Get insights you can read in 5 minutes [or less] for free. 3 inspiring properties, 2 relevant news stories, 1 tip + a market snapshot.

Read more from Josh Meltzer | Compass Real Estate

April 24th, 2025 Happy Thursday An idea I’ve been thinking about lately: agency.Sure, I’m a real estate agent — but what about agency as a character trait? High agency means happening to life, not letting life happen to you. It’s defined by your willingness to initiate action, solve problems independently, and persist even when circumstances aren't ideal. High agency is recognizing that your brain isn’t just reacting to life — it’s predicting it, based on past experiences. Which means:Agency...

April 17th, 2025 Happy Thursday I was chatting with a client this week who said something I hear all the time “I check Zillow every day just to see what’s going on.” Totally get it. Zillow is like real estate’s version of TikTok… easy to scroll, addictive, and always showing you just enough to keep you coming back. But here’s the thing you probably haven’t heard—Zillow is in a dogfight with traditional real estate brokerages. It’s not making headlines, but it’s quietly changing how you (and...

April 10th, 2025 Happy Thursday Hold on for the roller coaster ride of global economies... more on that in a moment. A client recently sent me a listing they were really excited about in Carlsbad—4 beds, solid layout, and priced just under the comps. It looked like a light fixer… but the agent remarks told another story. This was a trust sale, AS-IS, with a pre-listing inspection already done (rare in our market). The report revealed ~$75K in repairs… and that’s the optimistic version....