3-2-1 | The wealth effect is fading—what that means for prices


April 17th, 2025

Happy Thursday

I was chatting with a client this week who said something I hear all the time

“I check Zillow every day just to see what’s going on.”

Totally get it. Zillow is like real estate’s version of TikTok… easy to scroll, addictive, and always showing you just enough to keep you coming back.

But here’s the thing you probably haven’t heard—Zillow is in a dogfight with traditional real estate brokerages. It’s not making headlines, but it’s quietly changing how you (and everyone else) gets access to listings. And honestly? It’s kinda shady.

Let me break it down:

Zillow will start banning listings from its site if they don’t meet its new internal policies. That means you could be missing out on homes—not because they’re sold, but because Zillow is trying to protect "their data" so they can sell it.

Think about that. You’re searching Zillow for the full picture: what’s for sale, what sold in your neighborhood, rental prices, etc… but now they’re cherry-picking what you’re allowed to see.

So what happens next? You start missing listings. You think, “nothing good is on the market right now”... when in reality, you’re just not seeing everything.

Here’s what’s really wild 👇
Zillow doesn’t make its money by helping you find a home.
It makes money by selling your clicks to the highest bidder.

You click “connect with agent”?
Zillow connects you with whichever agent pays the most to advertise in that ZIP code.

And while Zillow gets over 300 million visits a month, only about 412,000 homes sell monthly in the U.S. That means only 0.00133% of those clicks turn into actual home purchases. 😳

So yeah, Zillow is a great place to browse. But if you want real access—like everything on the MLS plus off-market opportunities?
That’s where a real agent (👋 hi) makes all the difference.

Here’s what’s happening in real estate today:

3 properties to watch, 2 news updates on market trends, and 1 thought-provoking insight from me + a snapshot of current market conditions.

North County’s spring market is cruising along—steady, but with a few signs of shift. Inventory is building fast, now above 2022 and 2024 highs, giving buyers more options than we’ve seen in a while.

Prices are still inching up—median detached home sits at $1.08M—but that pace is clearly slowing.

Year-over-year price growth has cooled from 5.4% in January to just 3.2% in March. Unless interest rates drop quickly or the stock market goes wild, we may see prices flatten—or even dip a bit—as supply continues to rise.

Median Prices This Week

Rancho Santa Fe

$6,995,000

View All Stats→

Encinitas

$3,300,000

View All Stats→

Carlsbad

$2,192,000

View All Stats→

3 Properties to check out

1220 Rancho Encinitas Dr

Encinitas, CA 92024

$4,975,000

Tucked away on an acre in Olivenhain, this single-level retreat brings serious indoor-outdoor vibes—think vaulted ceilings, saltwater pool, and epic backyard sunsets. Room for horses, guests, or just living the good life a few minutes from the coast.

1141 Luneta Dr

Del Mar, CA 92014

$5,500,000

West of the 5 with ocean views! This modern Mediterranean gem blends breezy elegance with an A++ location—walk to the beach, grab a coffee in the The Plaza, or entertain on the rooftop deck for golden-hour.

[Undisclosed by the beach!]

Carlsbad, CA 92008

$4,300,000

Own a slice of paradise- just blocks from the sand in Carlsbad Village. Live in one, rent the others, or go full Short Term Rental mode. Updated interiors, coastal charm, and a walk-everywhere lifestyle make this a rare investment play in a red-hot pocket.


2 News Articles

Duh, but let's break it down. For years, rising stock and crypto markets have quietly boosted San Diego real estate. When portfolios grow, people feel wealthier—and they’re more willing to buy homes, stretch budgets, or pay cash.

That’s called the wealth effect, and it’s been a major tailwind for our market. But according to the Union-Tribune, recent market volatility is cooling that effect. If asset values keep sliding, expect buyers (especially cash-heavy ones) to pull back.

Sellers: don’t assume last year’s frenzy is still in play.

Buyers: this shift could create more negotiating power.

Either way, it’s a good time to be strategic—not emotional.

This is more than just a win for life sciences—it’s a reminder of how powerful our local economy really is. San Diego’s life sciences sector alone employs over 70,000 people and brings in billions annually.

Translation? People want to live here, and companies want to build here. For North County homeowners, this reinforces long-term value. For buyers, it’s proof you’re investing in a region with serious staying power.

1 Tip or Thought

Uncertainty = Opportunity (If You Know Where to Look)

In North County San Diego, where median home prices hover north of $1M and inventory sits around 2.5 months, market volatility tends to scare off the timid. But here’s the truth:

Hesitation creates opportunity.

Buyers: Low inventory means less competition for the good stuff—and we’re seeing more room to negotiate, especially on homes that missed the mark on pricing.
Sellers: Pricing strategically is everything right now. Homes are still moving in under a month in most zips—proof that demand is steady, but buyers are picky.

Pro tip: keep an eye on revitalizing pockets like Oceanside for long-term upside.

Real estate rewards patience over panic. San Diego’s resilient economy and lifestyle allure make it one of the most durable markets in the country.

Takeaways:

  • Uncertainty weeds out weak players—leaving deals for the decisive
  • North County’s scarcity drives long-term value
  • Action today builds wealth tomorrow—markets always recover

Reframe: Fear is just noise. Clarity comes from focusing on San Diego’s unshakable fundamentals. Act with conviction, and the market may just reward you.

Josh Meltzer

DRE 02098859

REALTOR®

M: 858.585.0309

Josh@joshmeltz.com

joshmeltz.com

P.S. The Taste of Leucadia is TONIGHT. Get your tickets here and come swing by the table... I'll be helping Will & Meghan (brother-in-law & wife) hand out fresh COOKIES.

Also, want to win FREE cookies? Enter the raffle here: tinyurl.com/St-Claire-giveaway

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DISCLAIMER: Due to recent changes by California Association of Realtors, and the SDMLS Clear Cooperation Policy (the “Policy”), Brokers are limited in their ability to share off-market properties. It is the intent of this letter to be in compliance with the Policy. For this reason, Talechia & Associates can only share such property information with clients of Talechia & Associates. If you would like more information on our properties that are not publicized in the MLS, and becoming a client of Compass, please contact Josh (858) 585-0309 or Talechia (858) 229-2181

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California and abides by Equal Housing Opportunity laws. License Number 01991628, 01527235, 01527365. All material presented herein is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but has not been verified. Changes in price, condition, sale or withdrawal may be made without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description. All measurements and square footage are approximate. If your property is currently listed for sale this is not a solicitation.

Compass · 16085 San Dieguito Rd Ste E8 · Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067 · USA
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Josh Meltzer | Compass Real Estate

Get insights you can read in 5 minutes [or less] for free. 3 inspiring properties, 2 relevant news stories, 1 tip + a market snapshot.

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