June 5th, 2025

Happy Thursday

A few weeks ago, the market felt like it was cracking.

Rates jumped. Headlines screamed. Buyers hit the brakes.
That was April.

Since then? The S&P 500 has quietly climbed more than 19% since bottoming out on April 8. The Fed stayed put. Inventory across North County kept building.

You wouldn’t know it from the headlines, but under the surface, North County’s market is quietly recalibrating. Inventory’s ticking up. Pending sales just posted their sharpest drop since 2022. That’s not a panic signal, it’s a pause. And it’s giving savvy buyers a little breathing room.

This is the part of the cycle where smart buyers start making moves. Not because they have to—but because they understand timing isn’t about calling a bottom. It’s about positioning when everyone else is unsure.

Less competition. More options. Better terms. That’s the current edge.

And for those willing to engage, it’s starting to pay off.

Here’s what’s happening in real estate today:

3 properties to watch, 2 news updates on market trends, and 1 thought-provoking insight from me + a snapshot of current market conditions.

📊 Market Snapshot (Week of June 5)

• New Listings: 701 (⬇️ 3.9% vs. last week)
• New Pendings: 391 (⬇️ 25.5%)
• New Sales: 401 (⬇️ 8.6%)
• Actives: 6,542 (⬆️ 1.2%)
• 30-Year Fixed: 6.97% (holding steady)

Buyers are poking around. Sellers are testing the waters. The tug-of-war continues.... but in the right pocket, with the right prep, deals are still getting done.

Median Prices This Week

3 Properties to check out

2815 Santa Fe Vista Ct, Encinitas, CA 92024 $3,950,000 This one nails the "private retreat" vibe. Single-story, tucked away on over a half-acre with lush landscaping and a pool that feels more Palm Springs than San Diego. Inside: soaring ceilings, an updated kitchen, and a layout built for gatherings. Olivenhain is Encinitas living with elbow room. View property

2531 Levante St, Carlsbad, CA 92009 $750,000 We always say: you never know what can happen. 3 weeks ago, we were touring the home next door. "They've owned that lot for 20 years and haven’t done anything," the seller said. Well... now they’re selling. This rare La Costa vacant lot is officially on the market, and someone new will be building. View property

6872 Shearwaters Dr Carlsbad, CA 92011 $1,225,000 Updated, bright, and breezy in Harbor Pointe (gated community). Four bedrooms, a gorgeous backyard, and one of the most functional floor plans in the neighborhood. Walk to schools and trails. A clean, move-in-ready option in one of Carlsbad’s most consistent pockets. View property

2 News Articles

• ​The U.S. Housing Market Has Nearly 500,000 More Sellers Than Buyers—the Most on Record. That Will Likely Cause Home Prices to Fall​

National Shift, Local Nuance​
Redfin just flagged the biggest seller-buyer imbalance since 2013—nearly 500,000 more sellers than buyers. Nationwide, 31 of the 50 largest metros are now buyer’s markets, and Redfin is forecasting a 1% dip in prices by year-end.

Condos are especially oversupplied (83% more sellers than buyers), and even single-family homes are seeing a 28% surplus. In places like Miami, sellers outnumber buyers nearly 3 to 1.

But real estate is hyper-local. This is worth repeating. Real estate is HYPER LOCAL.

While some markets are softening fast, North County’s story is different. In many neighborhoods, especially under $2.5M, inventory is still tight and well-prepped homes are getting scooped up.

The key takeaway? National headlines don’t tell your zip code’s story. Strategy does.

• ​Encinitas Ranked #5 in California—But Just #211 Nationally?​

According to U.S. News, Encinitas landed the #5 spot on their Best Places to Live in California list—but somehow only ranked #211 nationwide. Why the disconnect? Cost of living.

With a median home value north of $1M (versus the $416K national average), Encinitas isn’t cheap—and that dings it on national lists. But let’s be real: you get what you pay for.

Perfect weather. Laid-back surf-town vibes. A thriving local food scene. Great schools. And access to some of the best coastline in California.

To us? It’s EASILY top 10, no asterisk needed.

1 Tip or Thought

Sellers: Don’t Drop the Price—Buy Down the Rate Instead​
Let’s say you’re listed at $1.2M. Showings are solid, but offers are soft. Your gut says: “Maybe we should cut the price.” But before you slice $50K off the top, here’s a smarter play—offer ~$25K as a seller credit toward a mortgage rate buydown.

Here’s why that’s a better move:

🔹 A $50K price drop might lower a buyer’s monthly payment by ~$260.
🔹 But the same $25K used to buy down their interest rate could lower their monthly payment by $550+. Almost DOUBLE the monthly savings.

That’s real affordability power—and a huge lever for buyers dealing with today’s 7% rates.

Covering buying costs this way creates a clear win-win:

• Buyers get significantly lower payments.
• Sellers keep their list price intact (great for comps and appraisals), while still making the home more appealing.

Bottom line: strategic seller credits can be a win-win. Especially in a market where every basis point and every buyer counts.

Josh Meltzer DRE 02098859 REALTOR® M: 858.585.0309​ ​Josh@joshmeltz.com​ ​joshmeltz.com​

P.S. The San Diego County Fair is back in Del Mar June 11–July 6, and it’s bringing a wild mix of new food, nostalgic rides, and live music.

My brother-in-law and wife’s cookie company has a booth. Swing by and grab some fresh cookies—they’re legit!!

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DISCLAIMER: Due to recent changes by California Association of Realtors, and the SDMLS Clear Cooperation Policy (the “Policy”), Brokers are limited in their ability to share off-market properties. It is the intent of this letter to be in compliance with the Policy. For this reason, Talechia & Associates can only share such property information with clients of Talechia & Associates. If you would like more information on our properties that are not publicized in the MLS, and becoming a client of Compass, please contact Josh (858) 585-0309 or Talechia (858) 229-2181

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California and abides by Equal Housing Opportunity laws. License Number 01991628, 01527235, 01527365. All material presented herein is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but has not been verified. Changes in price, condition, sale or withdrawal may be made without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description. All measurements and square footage are approximate. If your property is currently listed for sale this is not a solicitation.