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July 31th, 2025
Happy Thursday
All eyes were on the Fed decision yesterday. No rate cut (yet) for the 5th time in a row, but the tone is shifting. Fed Chair Powell said this about mortgage rates:
It’s a subtle but important note. While the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, their messaging drives bond markets, and that’s what really moves the 30-year fixed.
For buyers, this is a signal: the floor may be forming. We might not see a dramatic drop, but the big jumps are likely behind us. If you've been waiting for the “perfect” rate... may have to keep waiting.
For sellers, stable rates could mean steadier demand, especially if inventory stays tight. Buyers realize they still need to act for life events, not the "perfect" rate.
The key now? Get ahead of the curve, not behind it.
Here’s what’s happening in real estate today:
3 properties to watch, 2 news updates on market trends, and 1 thought-provoking insight from me + a snapshot of current market conditions.
📊 Market Snapshot (Week of July 19-25)
- New Listings: 708 (⬇️ 8.2% vs. last week)
- New Pendings: 503 (⬇️ 4.2%)
- New Sales: 419 (⬆️ 6.6%)
- Actives: 7,004 (⬇️ 0.1%)
- 30-Year Fixed: 6.77% (⬇️ slightly)
Inventory held steady, pendings cooled slightly, and sales jumped, likely a catch-up after early summer lulls.
Buyer activity is picking up, but value still drives decisions.
New listings dipped a bit, keeping the balance tight.
For sellers, the edge goes to homes that show well and hit the market at the right number.
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Market Stats This Week
Properties to check out
Streamlining the format a bit this week for quicker reads and sharper takeaways.
Here are 3 properties...
An ocean view stunner in Solana Beach, a practical 4-bed near the Carlsbad-Encinitas border, and a turnkey townhome in coastal Carlsbad.
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The U.S. homeownership rate edged down to 65% in Q2 as affordability challenges continue to weigh on buyers. According to realtor.com, that’s the lowest rate since Q3 2019. After peaking in 2020, the rate has hovered between 65% and 66%, held back by high prices and limited affordable supply. Here are the key data points:
- The Midwest leads all regions in homeownership at 69.5%.
- Homeowner vacancy held steady at 1.1%, still tight by historical standards.
- Rental vacancy fell to 7%, with principal cities highest at 7.6%.
- The South had the highest rental vacancy (9%), while the Northeast had the lowest (5.2%).
- Among all demographic groups, only Hispanics saw a year-over-year increase; all other groups declined.
- Homeownership among buyers under 35 dropped to 36.4%, the lowest rate since before the pandemic.
Lower homeownership is a key reflection that affordability is still a major challenge, keeping would be buyers on the sidelines. While inventory is up, affordability is still rough.
- Zillow updates home price forecast for over 400 housing markets: See the map
Zillow has revised its U.S. home price forecast, now predicting a 2.0% decline in home values for calendar year 2025, and a 1.0% drop between June 2025 and June 2026. This marks a big shift from their earlier forecast of a 2.6% gain.
The change comes as rising inventory and affordability challenges soften demand. Mortgage rates remain higher, and after the 40% price surge during the pandemic, many buyers are holding back, while more sellers are entering the market.
The result: more listings, slower price growth, and increased buyer leverage. While slightly lower mortgage rates may help later in the year, major affordability relief isn't expected soon.
Among the 300 largest U.S. metro area housing markets, Zillow expects the strongest home price appreciation between June 2025 and June 2026 to occur in these 10 areas.
- Atlantic City, NJ → 2.9%
- Kingston, NY → 2.2%
- Knoxville, TN → 2.0%
- Torrington, CT → 1.9%
- Rockford, IL → 1.7%
- Concord, NH → 1.7%
- Pottsville, PA → 1.7%
- Fayetteville, AR → 1.6%
- Norwich, CT → 1.6%
- East Stroudsburg, PA → 1.5%
Among the 300 largest U.S. metro area housing markets, Zillow expects the weakest home price appreciation between April 2025 and April 2026 to occur in these 10 areas.
- Houma, LA → -9.6
- Lake Charles, LA → -9.5%
- Alexandria, LA → -8.0%
- New Orleans, LA → -7.2%
- Lafayette, LA → -7.0%
- Shreveport, LA → -6.9%
- Beaumont, TX → -6.5%
- San Francisco, CA → -6.1%
- Austin, TX → -5.1%
- Corpus Christi, TX → -5.0
1 Tip or Thought
I was touring homes this week with a family relocating from South Carolina. At one point, they checked their weather app and laughed. Back home, it was 115 degrees.
Here, it was 75. They called their kids and said, “It’s a hot one today,” with zero irony.
Sometimes I forget how good we have it here. The weather is so consistently beautiful that it fades into the background. But when someone new experiences it, it reminds you why people move here, why they stay, and what this lifestyle actually feels like.
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DISCLAIMER: Due to recent changes by California Association of Realtors, and the SDMLS Clear Cooperation Policy (the “Policy”), Brokers are limited in their ability to share off-market properties. It is the intent of this letter to be in compliance with the Policy. For this reason, Talechia & Associates can only share such property information with clients of Talechia & Associates. If you would like more information on our properties that are not publicized in the MLS, and becoming a client of Compass, please contact Josh (858) 585-0309 or Talechia (858) 229-2181
Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California and abides by Equal Housing Opportunity laws. License Number 01991628, 01527235, 01527365. All material presented herein is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but has not been verified. Changes in price, condition, sale or withdrawal may be made without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description. All measurements and square footage are approximate. If your property is currently listed for sale this is not a solicitation.
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