3-2-1 | Lowest Rates Since Oct 2024, But Should You Even Buy?


August 7th, 2025

Happy Thursday

Renting vs. Buying? Start With This Question
When clients ask me whether it makes more sense to rent or buy, I always start with one question:
Are you looking for a financial investment, or are you looking for something more, emotional security, stability, and a place to truly call home?

Sure, you can take pride in a rental. But you don’t control the outcome. I’ve lived in homes I loved, made them my own, only to have the landlord decide to sell and give me 60 days to figure it all out. It’s one of the worst feelings when it comes unexpectedly, especially after years of building a life there.

I’ve seen the other side too. A client owned a beautiful North County property with tenants who’d lived there for 10 years. Great renters, never missed a payment. But when the owners got divorced, the property had to be sold. Those tenants, who did nothing wrong, ended up priced out and moved out of state.

If you plan to stay, raise a family, and want stability, buying, even if it’s not as nice as what you could rent, can be one of the most valuable long-term decisions you make. It’s not just about ROI. It’s about roots.

That said, if you’re new to the area, unsure where you want to be, or looking purely for returns, renting might make more sense while you invest elsewhere.

The key is knowing what you’re optimizing for, and being honest about what matters most.

Here’s what’s happening in real estate today:

3 properties to watch, 2 news updates on market trends, and 1 thought-provoking insight from me + a snapshot of current market conditions.

📊 Market Snapshot (Week of July 26)

  • New Listings: 751 (⬆️ 6% vs. last week)
  • New Pendings: 457 (⬇️ 9%)
  • New Sales: 516 (⬆️ 23%)
  • Actives: 6,952 (⬇️ slightly)
  • 30-Year Fixed: 6.63% (⬇️ lowest since Oct ‘24)

Mortgage rates dipped again, landing at 6.63%, the lowest level since October 2024. Buyers have more breathing room, and it’s starting to show. Sales jumped 23% week over week as more deals got done. Buyer energy is still there, but they’re moving strategically. New listings ticked up, but inventory remains steady overall, hovering just under 7,000 homes. Pending sales dropped slightly (-9%), a reminder that buyer confidence is still tied to affordability. But when rates move, so do buyers.

Market Stats This Week

Rancho Santa Fe

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Encinitas

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Carlsbad

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Properties to check out

Streamlining the format a bit this week for quicker reads and sharper takeaways.

Here are 3 properties...

A modern masterpiece in Carlsbad, one of my favorite gated communities in Carlsbad- La Costa Ridge. Finally, a blank slate in Encinitas, on one of the best streets that is hiding in plain site.


2 News Articles

Despite the gloomy headlines, mortgage rates are actually trending down, thanks to a weak jobs report, and are now at their lowest since October 2024. That drop is giving North County buyers more negotiating power than we’ve seen in months.

Redfin’s June data shows median prices across San Diego County down about 3.3% year-over-year to $917,500. Homes are taking longer to sell too, averaging 29 days on market, up from just 17 last summer.

Inventory is building. Affordability remains tight. And pricing expectations are finally adjusting. For buyers who’ve been patient, this shift is creating more breathing room, and better opportunities to strike a deal.

With all that said, 29 days on market is NOT a long time. The market is finding balance as we were heavily tilted towards a sellers market the past few years.

A recent housing sentiment survey (July 2–23, 2025) figured out that people are starting to come around. Now, 52% say they’d accept a mortgage rate up to 6% on their next purchase, a notable rise from 41% earlier this year. And while most expect rates to stay above 6% over the next year, 55% anticipate local home prices will stay flat or fall, a 20-point jump from Q1 expectations.

When it comes to pricing and affordability, steep drops remain unlikely, with only 16% forecasting price drops of 4% or more.

On the tech front, a majority of people are doing their own home searching (73%), and 81% said they would use an online tool to draft an offer.

1 Tip or Thought

Buying isn’t always the smarter move. And renting isn’t always a waste. The better question is, what are you optimizing for?

If your goal is long-term stability, building equity, and having control over your living situation, owning usually wins. But if you’re newer to the area, still exploring your next chapter, or want the flexibility to invest elsewhere, renting might make more sense, especially when rates are high and market signals feel mixed.

Here’s what’s going on right now: quality rentals can still be pricey, but they’re often significantly cheaper than owning a similar home in the same neighborhood. And that delta matters, especially if you’re saving for a down payment or want to stay financially nimble.

There’s no one-size-fits-all formula. Everyone’s situation is different. That’s why I work closely with clients to separate the emotional pull from the financial facts, and help you make the call that actually supports your lifestyle and goals.

Josh Meltzer

DRE 02098859

REALTOR®

M: 858.585.0309

Josh@joshmeltz.com

joshmeltz.com

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DISCLAIMER: Due to recent changes by California Association of Realtors, and the SDMLS Clear Cooperation Policy (the “Policy”), Brokers are limited in their ability to share off-market properties. It is the intent of this letter to be in compliance with the Policy. For this reason, Talechia & Associates can only share such property information with clients of Talechia & Associates. If you would like more information on our properties that are not publicized in the MLS, and becoming a client of Compass, please contact Josh (858) 585-0309 or Talechia (858) 229-2181

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California and abides by Equal Housing Opportunity laws. License Number 01991628, 01527235, 01527365. All material presented herein is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but has not been verified. Changes in price, condition, sale or withdrawal may be made without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description. All measurements and square footage are approximate. If your property is currently listed for sale this is not a solicitation.

Compass · 16085 San Dieguito Rd Ste E8 · Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067 · USA
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Josh Meltzer | Compass Real Estate

Get insights you can read in 5 minutes [or less] for free. 3 inspiring properties, 2 relevant news stories, 1 tip + a market snapshot.

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