3-2-1 | Inflation, Rates & Real Estate: The Smart Buyer Move


February 13th, 2025

Happy Thursday

Mortgage rates jumped after yesterday’s inflation report showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was higher than expected.

Finance folks, you can skip ahead. But for the rest of us, here’s a quick breakdown:

Mortgage rates are tied to bonds, and inflation is their worst enemy. Bonds are "fixed income" investments—think of them like an investor buying a mortgage at a set interest rate.

Here’s why that matters: If an investor earns $100 today, that might cover a month’s groceries. But if inflation keeps rising, that same $100 might only stretch for three weeks. Not great. So, when inflation rises, investors demand higher returns—pushing mortgage rates up.

Here’s what’s happening in real estate today:

3 properties to watch, 2 news updates on market trends, and 1 thought-provoking insight from me + a snapshot of current market conditions.

New listings are slightly down but overall, inventory is up 28% year over year.

Median Prices This Week

Rancho Santa Fe

$7,275,000

View All Stats→

Encinitas

$3,249,000

View All Stats→

Carlsbad

$2,322,500

View All Stats→

3 Properties to check out

381 Playa Blanca

Encinitas, CA 92024

$1,400,000

Check out this remodeled condo that is within walking distance of the 101 in Encinitas. Walk to dinner every night from this awesome complex!

18027 El Brazo

Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067

$3,980,000

A classic, stunning Rancho Santa Fe home. Some might see the price and think it’s a steal compared to similar properties—but it all comes down to location. The upper portion of Cielo, a gated community, falls within Escondido, meaning different schools and a much longer drive to shopping and dining compared to most of RSF.

624 Nardito Ln

Solana Beach, CA 92075

$3,200,000

Let’s call a spade a spade. I wish some agents would say this is in a great location but the property needs some TLC Not: “624 Nardito Ln. offers a perfect blend of comfort, style and convenience”


2 News Articles

First-time homebuyers are getting older.

28 years old → The median age of first-time U.S. homebuyers in 1991.

38 years old → The median age of first-time U.S. homebuyers in 2024.

Repeat homebuyers are getting older too.

42 years old → The median age of repeat U.S. homebuyers in 1991.

61 years old → The median age of repeat U.S. homebuyers in 2024.

In this case, these older homeowners have so much equity built up in their homes, if they decide to move, they can often put significant cash down on a purchase to offset the higher rates (or eliminate the need for a mortgage entirely).

For us younger generations, buying a home is becoming increasingly difficult due to rising costs, delayed financial milestones, and increased competition from older homeowners with significant equity who can afford to buy with cash or larger down payments.

Housing Inventory is on the rise

"The fact that inventory is rising year-over-year, combined with January's smallest inventory decline for the month since Realtor.com began publishing data in summer 2016, strongly suggests that national active housing inventory for sale is likely to end the year higher."

1 Tip or Thought

The other morning, I saw a post on X from a smart guy I follow, Shaan—big in podcasts, investing, and crypto.

He posed a question, and I figured I could contribute. Here’s a quick story:

My clients found a home on Zillow, loved it at the open house, and we wrote an offer. The seller had three offers, so we slightly increased ours. Our lender, well-connected with the seller’s lender, did a cross-qualification to avoid escrow surprises (which happen more often than you’d think).

We got the offer accepted—but that’s just the beginning.

Credit to the seller’s agent: He pointed out a ceiling stain, and the seller admitted they needed a roofer. Then, he disclosed a drainage issue, revealing the seller had rerouted water onto neighboring properties—without telling them. Many agents would brush this off, leaving buyers to figure it out during inspections. Instead, this agent got bids, and the seller is covering ~$45K in repairs.

But the full extent of the leak is unknown. Some buyers might proceed, but that could be a costly mistake. We brought in a remediation specialist to check for mold and our own inspector to determine if it's a minor fix or a six-figure problem. Meanwhile, seller repairs won’t be done before our contingency deadline.

Now, imagine an unrepresented buyer navigating this alone. Would they know which contract provisions protect them? Have the right contacts to get inspections done immediately? Understand how to interpret reports, negotiate repairs, and ensure they're not walking into a financial nightmare?

This happens all the time. Most transactions aren’t simple. This is why having an experienced agent matters—to manage the process, leverage relationships, and ensure buyers make informed decisions (or legally back out if needed).

Long story short: You get what you pay for.

Josh Meltzer

DRE 02098859

REALTOR®

M: 858.585.0309

Josh@Talechia.com

P.S. New Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent wants to bypass the Fed to lower interest rates.

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DISCLAIMER: Due to recent changes by California Association of Realtors, and the SDMLS Clear Cooperation Policy (the “Policy”), Brokers are limited in their ability to share off-market properties. It is the intent of this letter to be in compliance with the Policy. For this reason, Talechia & Associates can only share such property information with clients of Talechia & Associates. If you would like more information on our properties that are not publicized in the MLS, and becoming a client of Compass, please contact Josh (858) 585-0309 or Talechia (858) 229-2181

Compass is a real estate broker licensed by the State of California and abides by Equal Housing Opportunity laws. License Number 01991628, 01527235, 01527365. All material presented herein is intended for informational purposes only and is compiled from sources deemed reliable but has not been verified. Changes in price, condition, sale or withdrawal may be made without notice. No statement is made as to the accuracy of any description. All measurements and square footage are approximate. If your property is currently listed for sale this is not a solicitation.

Compass · 16085 San Dieguito Rd Ste E8 · Rancho Santa Fe, CA 92067 · USA
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Josh Meltzer | Compass Real Estate

Get insights you can read in 5 minutes [or less] for free. 3 inspiring properties, 2 relevant news stories, 1 tip + a market snapshot.

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